Decision Window Narrows
The US Supreme Court has scheduled potential opinion releases for 20, 24, and 25 February on President Trump's worldwide tariffs. That's 100+ days since oral arguments on 5 November 2025.
The tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, have collected over $130 billion according to US Customs and Border Protection. Lower courts ruled them unlawful but stayed their rulings pending the Supreme Court review.
What Finance Teams Are Doing
Dozens of companies including Costco and Toyota have filed protective lawsuits at the Court of International Trade to preserve refund rights before Customs finalises their tariff payments. Trump himself warned of "a complete mess" for refunds if the ruling goes against the administration.
The average effective tariff rate currently sits at 16.9%, the highest since 1932. Federal Reserve research shows nearly 90% of the economic burden falls on US firms and consumers, costing the average household around $1,751 annually.
Three Possible Outcomes
The Court could strike down tariffs but deny retroactive refunds. It could delay implementation to allow Congressional action. Or it could order refunds but leave timing unspecified.
If IEEPA tariffs fall, the administration could pivot to Section 122 of the Trade Act, which permits worldwide tariffs up to 15% for 150 days. That's narrower but still viable.
The House passed a joint resolution last week to end the 35% Canadian tariff. Speaker Mike Johnson called it "fruitless" given Trump's veto power and lack of override votes.
Accounting Implications
Regardless of the ruling, practical consequences will unfold over weeks or months. Agency guidance, duty recalculations, and refund administration don't happen overnight.
Finance teams should review tariff exposure schedules, document protective filings at the Court of International Trade, and prepare contingency scenarios. This includes inventory valuation adjustments under ASC 330 if tariffs are invalidated and subsequent measurement implications for acquisition costs already recognised.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson noted on CBS that "the American people expect for us to be thorough and clear in our determinations and sometimes that takes time." CFOs get one week, maybe three, to find out what thorough means.